Let The Games Begin

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Author

Landon Pontius
April 25, 2025

Top-line

Bitcoin just charged past $94,000, eyeing the next major psychological hurdle at $95,000. This isn't just technical chart action; it’s a confluence of robust institutional inflows, strategic moves by the market's biggest players, and a growing narrative shift that positions Bitcoin as a potential haven amidst macroeconomic turbulence. While traditional markets grapple with political pressure on central banks and global trade tensions, Bitcoin appears to be carving its own path. For those holding through volatility, the signals suggest a maturing asset gaining serious traction.

A New Giant Enters the Treasury Race

Adding significant weight to the institutional trend is the recently announced joint venture forming "Twenty One Capital." This new entity, backed by heavy hitters like Tether, SoftBank Group, and Cantor Fitzgerald, is set to become the world's third-largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin. They plan to launch with over 42,000 bitcoins, a substantial war chest accumulated partly through contributions from Tether (majority owner along with Bitfinex) and a significant minority investment from SoftBank.

This isn't just another company buying Bitcoin; Twenty One Capital is explicitly designed as a "Bitcoin-native" company, led by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, with a mission to maximize Bitcoin ownership per share. They aim to emulate and potentially surpass the strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor, offering investors a direct vehicle for Bitcoin exposure, advocacy, and future Bitcoin-focused products. Their planned public listing under the ticker "XXI" signals a direct challenge in the corporate Bitcoin accumulation space. It's a bold move that highlights how established financial players are increasingly seeing the strategic value in holding significant amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

Key Players & Figures

  • Key Entities: Twenty One Capital, Cantor Equity Partners, Tether, Bitfinex, SoftBank Group.

  • Initial BTC Holding: Over 42,000 BTC.

  • Rank: Expected to be the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally at launch.

  • Leadership: Co-founded and led by Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike.

  • Public Listing: Expected via SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, ticker XXI.

Bitcoin Decouples From Risk

Something fascinating is happening in the correlation charts. Historically, when macroeconomic storms gathered, Bitcoin often traded in lockstep with risk assets like stocks. Not so much lately. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to around 0.65, noticeably lower than the near-1.0 levels seen during previous stress periods. This partial decoupling suggests Bitcoin might be evolving into the "digital gold" many believe it can be – an asset that offers diversification when traditional markets wobble.

Consider the current macro backdrop: President Trump is openly challenging the Federal Reserve, creating uncertainty around monetary policy. Global trade tensions, driven by tariff announcements, are injecting further instability into the system. In this environment, markets are seeking alternatives to traditional currencies and bonds. The calls for the Swiss National Bank to add Bitcoin to its reserves, arguing it makes sense "as the world shifts towards a multipolar order, where the dollar and the euro are weakening," underscore this global search for alternative stores of value. While caution is warranted – some analysts note recent price strength has occurred on lower trading volumes – the divergent performance (Bitcoin up 10% in April while S&P 500 and the dollar index fell 5%) is a powerful signal.

(Correlation Explained: Think of correlation as a measure of how two things move together. A correlation of 1.0 means they move in the same direction perfectly; 0 means no relationship; -1.0 means they move in opposite directions perfectly. A lower correlation with stocks means Bitcoin isn't just tracking the tech sector anymore.)

Key Observations

  • 0.65: Bitcoin's current 30-day correlation with the S&P 500.

  • 10%: Bitcoin's gain in April.

  • 5%: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar Index losses in April.

  • Switzerland: Location where campaigners are pushing for the central bank to hold Bitcoin.

Among the many bullish predictions floating around, the recent update from Cathie Wood's ARK Invest stands out. They've significantly raised their "bull case" Bitcoin price target for the end of 2030 from $1.5 million to a remarkable $2.4 million. Even their "base" case jumped from $710,000 to $1.2 million, and their "bear" case moved from $300,000 to $500,000.

What drives this dramatic increase? According to ARK, it's primarily institutional investment. They estimate their $2.4 million bull case would require Bitcoin achieving just a 6.5% penetration rate into the massive $200 trillion global financial market. This isn't just pulling numbers from thin air; it's based on a model that sees Bitcoin capturing a meaningful slice of global wealth as institutions allocate to it. While it's a long-term projection, such a significant target increase from a prominent investment firm underscores the magnitude of the opportunity they see unfolding.

Concluding Takeaway

The picture emerging this week is one of Bitcoin consolidating its position as a significant global asset. It's attracting serious institutional capital, the largest holders are accumulating aggressively, and it's showing increasing resilience and independence from traditional markets during periods of macroeconomic stress. While volatility and external risks, like cybercrime or unexpected recessions, always exist, the fundamental indicators and narrative shifts point to a network and asset class that is maturing and gaining undeniable momentum. The path forward may have bumps, but the long-term trend, supported by increasing adoption and a unique value proposition, remains compelling.

Stay calm. Stay clear. Stay humble.

The Team @ Bitcoin Brief